Speaker 1: Lord Whitty (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, DETR)

UK Government Action on Climate Change

Slide presentation

In climate change, we are dealing with probably the most difficult and challenging question of our generation. It is difficult to deal with climate change within the normal pressures and time-scales of politics. Politicians operate within a 5 year timescale - this conference is looking to take a longer term view than this.

There is little doubt that climate change is with us 'on our doorstep'. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) have argued that there is strong scientific evidence to suggest that most global warming is due to human activity. Their current estimation is that during this century, temperatures will rise by up to 6^o Celsius. This is double the 1995 estimate, and equates to over ten times the increase in temperature over the course of the last century.

What are the implications of this change?

Average sea levels could rise by 40cm, which would have serious implications for coastal regions. Eighty million people each year could be put at risk from flooding. The UK has already experienced, for example, a noticeable increase in hot days - 26 were recorded in 1995, which was the highest total in 225 years of recorded measurements. Whilst more climatic changes have been experienced, the most worrying fact is the unprecedented rate of change and the increased likelihood of extreme events.

It is difficult to think of any sector in the UK that would not be affected by climate change. Each region has its own vulnerabilities. The South West could expect increased frequencies of summer heat, more frost-free winters and very few winter snow falls, greater risk from flooding, higher storm surges and average temperatures rising by 2.3^o Celsius (compared to a warming trend of 0.3^o Celsius over the last 100 years). Sea levels could rise between 0.2 and 0.8 metres.

This is, therefore, a serious problem that must be addressed at regional and global levels, and a scoping study is required in the South West to look at the challenges presented by climate change.

At the global level, climate change has been addressed for the last 15 years. The Kyoto Protocol was the first significant step on addressing climate change. The UK government has played its part in attempting to secure effective international action. Climate change must be concentrated on for the longer-term: action is required by more countries to make deeper and sustained cuts in the emissions required to avoid dangerous climates. The IPCC estimate that 60 - 70% cuts in emissions are needed globally to stabilise atmospheric emissions of carbon.

This presents an enormous challenge that will stretch across generations, but one that needs to be confronted now to ensure that we move towards a low carbon economy. The UK has set its target, to be achieved by 2010, of reducing domestic levels of carbon dioxide to 20% below 1990 levels. This is significantly above the Kyoto target of 12%. There are, however, few countries on course for meeting the Kyoto targets.

In the UK, work done by businesses, local authorities and other organisations has been central to the importance of the DETR programme published in November 2000. The programme details the impacts of the policies adopted and identified. The organisations represented at this conference will help turn this programme into reality. There is a need to develop new technologies, new ways of working and new approaches to society to modernise industry and the economy in order to revolutionise the way in which energy is used and generated. This will require application at regional and local levels.

For businesses, the myth needs to be dispelled that giving priority to environmental objectives can adversely affect business objectives, although historically this has not been the case. The German chemical industry in the 1950s, for example, gained competitive advantage and became a world leader because it adopted stringent emissions and safety standards. In terms of the environmental challenges faced at present, the countries and industries that attempt to meet/exceed the objectives required will gain competitive advantage. This will create new business and employment opportunities, and new skills and technologies will be developed.

Change is essential. This will, for example, involve reducing car usage, reducing congestion and changing in the ways in which we work. The following policies will encourage this transformation: ^o Climate Change Levy o Emissions Trading Programmes o Policies to stimulate investment in renewable energy o Establishment of the Carbon Trust (which will stimulate investment in low carbon technologies) It is estimated that this package of policies could reduce UK greenhouse gas emissions to 23% below 1990 levels by 2010. However, if actions are not taken, the advantages gained during the 1990s will be reversed by 2020. April 2001 [saw] the introduction of the Climate Change Levy, the launch of the Carbon Trust, establishment of the Kyoto Mechanisms Office and the launch of the UK Emissions Trading Scheme.

We all must do our part in mitigating/slowing down/reversing climate change by reducing emissions. This will be the only way of avoiding significant global damage. Climate change will occur despite our best efforts and the effects are unavoidable. The response to this must be to slow down climate change and to tackle the impacts (for example, by programmes of adaptation).

The government is already building climate change adaptation into current policies (such as water resources, coastal protection and in its approach to planning). There is still, however, a large amount that needs to be done. We need to understand the nature of climate change facing us; all organisations need to develop this understanding in order to plan to deal with climate change impacts, at the same time as engaging in policies for reducing the carbon content of the economy.

The UKCIP was established by the government in 1997 and has pioneered regional scoping studies. This has raised awareness of the climate change issues, but the general public seem to remain unconvinced and are not prepared to change their behaviour (as demonstrated during the fuel crisis). In the South West, the momentum needs to be carried forward, and with the help of UKCIP, a full assessment should be undertaken of the region's vulnerability and what needs to be done to tackle climate change.

In working for a South West plan to mitigate or adapt to climate change, it is hoped that progress will be made towards this as a result of the conference.

Speaker 2: Sir John Houghton (Co-chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

Climate Change: the Global Picture

Background

The work of the IPCC is to try and get ownership by the world's community of scientists and by government, by involving all the scientists to work together who know about climate change on the production of the IPCC reports.

The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC has recently been published and is described as a comprehensive scientific review. Over 1000 scientists world wide were involved in its production, with many leading scientists involved. The document is very authoritative and has been thoroughly reviewed.

The Policy-makers Summary attempts to differentiate between what we do know and do not know about climate change. We can be sure about the following: o With regards to the carbon dioxide record, the concentration in the atmosphere before 1760 was well balanced by natural processes. The burning of fossil fuels by humans and increased deforestation has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide by 31%. We can be sure that this rise is a result of human activity. o Over the last 160 000 years (through the last ice age cycle), temperatures and carbon dioxide concentration have been determined and found to be intimately related, with the variation being continuous. Carbon dioxide (and methane also) are now dramatically more outside of the range than they have been for millions of years. o Carbon dioxide acts as a blanket over the earth's surface, keeping the surface warmer than it would otherwise be. o The 1990s were very likely (i.e. 90-99% certainty) to have been the warmest years in the last 100, and are likely (i.e. 66%-90% certainty) to have been the warmest decade in the millennium.

Temperature is 'racing' upwards - so how sure can we be that warming in the last century is due to the greenhouse effect? Numerous models have been run to simulate the climate of the twentieth century. The projected temperatures (which vary according to the scenario) predict that global temperatures will increase between 1.4 -5.8^o Celsius. The rate of change is expected to be larger than it has been for the last 10 000 years. Ecosystems will find it very difficult to adapt to these changes.

One of the major impacts will be sea level rise. This is due to the thermal expansion of sea water and melting of glaciers. This change will irreversibly affect the world's ice sheets, which will have serious implications for low-lying countries, such as Bangladesh. The Everglades in Florida would be lost. Countries with a significant coastline would be the most significantly affected.

There are also implications for global water use, in terms of the impacts on the hydrological cycle which will become more intense. Heavier rainfalls will become heavier (due to the increased intensity of circulation); lighter rainfalls will become lighter. The robust result of this is that the intensity of floods and droughts will be much greater.

An increase in precipitation in the north Atlantic could seriously affect global ocean circulation by weakening the circulation of warm water. There is, however, some uncertainty on the nature of the impacts of this.

What do we need to do?

Atmospheric levels of carbon must be stabilised. Global emissions must be reduced well below the 1990 levels by the end of this century. Everyone has a role to play in achieving this. Climate change should not be viewed as a threat: it is a marvellous opportunity.

Speaker 3: Dr Geoff Jenkins (Head, Climate Prediction Programme, The Hadley Centre)
Climate Change Data: the UK and South West Regional Picture

Overview:

• Observed global and UK climate change
• Current scenarios of climate change
• Improvements in predictions
• Uncertainties in predictions and rapid change

There is tremendous variability in both national and global climate trends and it is not possible to make assumptions on climate change based on one or two years reference. In terms of climate change in England, the long record shows that there is an upward trend in temperatures, despite year-to-year variability. The number of heat waves per year has risen from approximately 30 at the start of the twentieth century to about 60-80 at present. The number of frosts over the same time period has decreased from 50-60 to 35. These trends are expected to continue.

With regard to rainfall, the huge natural variability makes it very difficult to see if there are any trends. There appears to be a slight upward trend in winter precipitation and a slight downward trend during the summer. The problem in detecting man-made climate change is due to the records that show the large natural variability in climate in this country.

Despite this large range of natural variability, there has been a change in the amount of rainfall during heavy rainfall events. Over the last 30 years, there has been a significant reduction in lighter rainfall events and significant increase in heavier rainfall events. Showing trends in gales is more difficult. There is much variability in the number of severe gale days, although preliminary indications suggest that the 1990s in the UK had an increase in storminess not seen previously.

In southern Britain, a 2^o Celsius rise in temperature is expected by the middle of the century. The number of climatic extremes is expected to increase, for example:

There is potential for greater storminess in the future, but at present, the models are not robust enough to come to a firm conclusion and more work is required in order to make better predictions.

The work undertaken for UKCIP has been used to inform stakeholders over the last 3-4 years of climate change scenarios: what do these stakeholders want to be improved in future scenarios?

• More detailed climate models
• Better information on extreme weather event
• Guidance on how to handle uncertainty
• Rapid change, for example, will the Gulf Stream be cut off?

A new set of scenarios has, therefore, been developed which are based on a regional (as opposed to global) climate model. The regional climate models are based on a limited area, although they are driven by the global model. The regional model provides a greater degree of resolution and gives a better representation of rainfall events. These models will be used for future estimates. The new scenarios based on the regional climate model are due to be published next year.

UKCIP 2002 Scenarios

• Based on Regional Climate Mode
• 50km resolution
• Better representation of extremes, for example, rainfall
• Improved storm track simulation
• Shows full range of SRES (emissions) scenarios
• Shows uncertainty due to natural variability

There is a need to look at the uncertainties in the predictions. The greatest uncertainty lies with the climate models and the imperfect representations of some features, such as clouds. It is not possible to give a proper range of uncertainty.

The Gulf Stream
The implication of the Gulf Stream collapsing would be that the whole of the northern hemisphere would be 'plunged' into a very much colder climate. The temperatures in Britain could drop to 3-4^o Celsius below those at present. This event, however, is not seen to be imminent.

Summary

• The observed global warming is due largely to human activities
• There is huge natural variability of the UK climate
• A predicted increase (2-3) in UK heavy rainfall days, the first tentative signs of which have been seen in observations. Events such as the recent flooding could become more frequent
• Gulf Stream switch-off (and cooling) is not imminent
• UKCIP 2002 scenarios are a substantial improvement on previous ones
• The main challenge is to quantify the uncertainties and present them as a risk for those who have to use them for planning.